Tropical Forests May Lose Carbon Absorption Ability During El Niño, Study Warns

A new analysis suggests that tropical forests could stop absorbing carbon dioxide during El Niño events, with this year potentially being the worst on record for such disruption.

This article was drafted with AI assistance from multiple sources and was reviewed and approved by a human editor before publication.

A recent analysis indicates that tropical forests, which normally serve as vital carbon sinks, may cease to absorb carbon dioxide during El Niño events. The study warns that this year could be the worst on record for such a disruption, as a strong El Niño is forecast for 2026.

During El Niño, warmer and drier conditions in tropical regions stress forests, reducing photosynthesis and increasing respiration from soil and plant decay. This shift can turn these forests from carbon sinks into net carbon sources, releasing more CO2 than they capture.

Previous El Niño years, such as 2015-2016, already showed significant carbon losses from tropical forests. The new analysis suggests that the 2026 event could surpass those impacts, potentially leading to the largest temporary loss of carbon uptake capacity ever observed.

The findings highlight the vulnerability of natural carbon sinks to climate variability. As El Niño events are expected to become more frequent and intense under global warming, the ability of tropical forests to mitigate climate change may be increasingly compromised. Scientists emphasize the need for continued monitoring and conservation efforts to protect these critical ecosystems.